We tracked 1,694 cards from 76 new sets: the typical one lost 12% in a month and 21% in two
The drop does not stop after a month. Of the cards we could follow for two, 81% were cheaper at day 60 than at day 30.
Every new set we cover follows the same pattern: a loud launch, then a slow slide. We wanted to know how big that slide is, so we measured it the same way for every set released in 2026, from March to early September. That is 76 sets from 18 games and 1,694 cards that were worth $20 or more when launch week ended.
A month after launch week, 78% of cards are cheaper
We start the clock at the end of launch week, 14 days after release, because the first prices are set before boxes are opened at scale. Thirty days later, 1,329 of the 1,694 cards had a lower price. 355 were higher and 10 had not changed. The median card lost 11.5%.
The pattern holds set by set. In 69 of the 76 sets, the median card was lower after 30 days.
The slide does not stop at a month
For 62 sets we could follow the same cards for 60 days: 1,189 cards in total. Their median loss was 11.9% at day 30 and 21.0% at day 60. That is, the second month cost about as much as the first.
- 81% of those cards were cheaper at day 60 than at day 30.
- Half of them, 613 cards, had lost 20% or more.
- 170 cards, one in seven, had lost half or more.
- Of the 253 cards that were up at day 30, 82 had fallen below their launch week price by day 60.
Wing Gundam Zero (EW) (LR+) from Freedom Ascension is a typical case: $176.00 at the end of launch week, $96.00 at day 30, $67.43 at day 60.
The sets that fell hardest
These are the five sets with the biggest median loss at day 60, counting only sets with at least 8 cards we could follow. Both columns use the same cards.
| Set | Game | Cards | Day 30 | Day 60 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M6: Storm Emeralda | Pokémon (Japan) | 9 | −47.8% | −60.8% |
| M5: Abyss Eye | Pokémon (Japan) | 8 | −34.0% | −54.2% |
| Dual Revolution | Digimon | 22 | −35.0% | −52.5% |
| Commander: Marvel Super Heroes | Magic | 40 | −40.7% | −52.1% |
| Eternal Nexus | Gundam | 13 | −14.1% | −49.6% |
In M6: Storm Emeralda every card we followed lost value. Mega Rayquaza ex 110/076 went from $702.30 to $400.11 in a month and to $294.76 in two.
The sets that held
The same rule from the other end: the five sets with the smallest median loss at day 60.
| Set | Game | Cards | Day 30 | Day 60 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wilds Unknown | Lorcana | 20 | +32.1% | +25.1% |
| Ashes of the Empire | Star Wars: Unlimited | 22 | +1.0% | −1.6% |
| Secrets of Strixhaven: Mystical Archive | Magic | 53 | +3.8% | −3.9% |
| A Lawless Time | Star Wars: Unlimited | 30 | −2.0% | −4.8% |
| Commander: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles | Magic | 25 | −4.1% | −6.2% |
Only Wilds Unknown went clearly up. Even there, the gains came in the first month and shrank in the second.
What this means for a buyer
If you want a card from a new set to play or to keep, waiting usually costs less. In this data, a month of patience saved a median 11.5%, and two months saved 21%. The exceptions exist, but they are few: 7 sets out of 76 had a higher median price after 30 days. Every set we cover has its own page with the full price history, so you can check where a card stands before you buy.