The Hobbit two months in: 36 of its 37 priciest cards are down
The median chase card lost 39% since launch week. Only Smaug's $24,500 borderless foil held, and its price has not changed at all.
The Hobbit came out on August 14. We leave its first two weeks out: before supply arrives, prices are guesses rather than a market. From August 28 to October 25, 36 of the 37 cards worth $20 or more got cheaper, and the median card lost 39%.
Thranduil fell the hardest
Thranduil, the Elvenking (Borderless) (Surge Foil) went from $160.25 to $52.84, a 67% drop in eight weeks. Second is Smaug, Wicked Worm (Borderless) (Surge Foil), down 56%, from $124.78 to $55.28.
Gleaming Splendor and the $400 presale
Before release, presale buyers paid as much as $400 for Gleaming Splendor (Borderless) in foil. On release day it was already $135.43. It bounced to $208.95 by the end of launch week and has slid since, to $101.89 on October 25, a 51% drop. That $400 never was a market price, and it is not in any of our comparisons.
Even the mildest drop is a drop
The card that held up best is Gollum, Riddle Master (Borderless) (Surge Foil), and it still lost 15%: $109.62 then, $93.11 on October 25. Surge foils, Showcase frames, borderless art: every treatment of every chase card is cheaper than it was at the end of launch week.
The one card that didn't move
Smaug the Magnificent (Borderless) in foil sits at $24,500.00, exactly where it was in August. On a card this expensive, a flat line usually means no new sale has been recorded. Read it as "no trades", not as "held its value".
The twelve most valuable cards
| Card | Aug 28 | Oct 25 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Smaug the Magnificent (Borderless) · foil | $24,500.00 | $24,500.00 | 0.0% |
| Gleaming Splendor (Borderless) (Surge Foil) | $644.61 | $423.57 | −34.3% |
| Smaug the Magnificent (Showcase) (Surge Foil) | $318.67 | $168.42 | −47.1% |
| Gandalf, Goblins' Bane (Borderless) (Surge Foil) | $234.16 | $164.26 | −29.9% |
| The Arkenstone (Borderless) (Surge Foil) | $278.70 | $163.33 | −41.4% |
| The Queen of Dale (Showcase) (Surge Foil) | $172.84 | $114.12 | −34.0% |
| Thorin, Mountain-king (Borderless) (Surge Foil) | $155.41 | $105.24 | −32.3% |
| Gleaming Splendor (Borderless) · foil | $208.95 | $101.89 | −51.2% |
| Bard, King of Dale (Borderless) (Surge Foil) | $141.94 | $99.12 | −30.2% |
| Gollum, Riddle Master (Borderless) (Surge Foil) | $109.62 | $93.11 | −15.1% |
| The Arkenstone (Showcase) (Surge Foil) | $121.35 | $88.09 | −27.4% |
| Orcrist, Goblin-cleaver (Showcase) (Surge Foil) | $93.54 | $73.52 | −21.4% |
Is this normal for a new set?
It is the pattern of every big release this autumn. The World's Strongest Warriors for One Piece came out on August 28 and did the same in its first month: 30 of its 31 cards worth $20 or more fell, with a median drop of 22.5%. Openings flood the market first; demand from players and collectors decides what happens next.
Denis Kataev · Denis Kataev runs tcgrate. Every night the site records more than 480,000 card prices across 26 trading card games, and he writes about what those numbers show: what fell, what spiked, and which moves are real.